Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Labour Won't Win a General Election With Starmer

Sadly he just doesn't appeal to the voters Labour must win back. 

Like Tony Blair, Starmer appeals to the comfortably Middle-Class. But due to decades of Neo-Liberalism, there are less and less of those people and hence fewer voters who would be attracted to Starmer's politics. He would have been great in 1997, but I believe he'll really struggle in 2024 and with him in charge Labour could get an even worse result than they did in 2019.

Almost instantly after the December election result many felt extremely sad & that Labour needs to return to a more Centrist leadership to gain power. And I felt the same for a bit. I felt a more Centrist leader like Starmer would see Labour appealing to more people and getting more votes. But then when I started to think about it & realized this was not the case. 

A major reason why Labour lost the 1992 election was that a section of the Middle-Class, still with fresh Cold War memories, feared a scary socialist Government. Tony Blair's Centrism in 1997 & his success, was based on the fact that many in the Middle-Class now felt comfortable to vote Labour.

But Britain in the 2020s is very different to the 1990s. The middle-class is vanishing and fears of socialism too are vanishing. 

Labour's problem in 2019 was not from Middle-Class people with a fear of Socialism but from working-class people switching to the Tories partly due to Brexit. Seats that had been Labour for decades flipped to the Tories as voters felt that Labour was just a London Remain Party. 

Hence Starmer, a huge Remainer from London, would be the exact opposite of what Labour needs now. The Right-Wing press and the Tories would portray him as an out-of-touch Londoner and frankly there is a lot of truth in that. 

Furthermore what does he offer to those working-class people in terms of policy? Corbyn for all his flaws managed to get a lot of young people especially out voting Labour due his Left-Wing politics.

But Starmer does not even have that. I have asked a number of Starmer supporters the question of how he will win back seats in Northern England and they never give me an answer. And sadly I don't think there is an answer.

I know people are hurting due to the election defeat but while turning back to Centrism got Labour a victory in 1997, the signs appears to be that this will not be the case in 2024. 

My prediction with a Starmer leadership is that Labour will get a similar result to what Miliband got in 2015 (around 30%): I think he would get some votes from Middle-Class LibDemers and maybe make gains in the South-East, but not win back seats in the North and maybe lose a few more in the Midlands.